Thankfully ladies and gentlemen it is that time once again. It is very possibly one of the most exciting weekends of the year for me as well as many other F1 fans old and young. We are very quickly closing in on the first race of the highly anticipated first race of the 2011 Formula One World Championship. And due to the circumstances in Bahrain the season starts where it always should do as long as it in on the calender:
The Albert Park track in Melbourne, Australia.
With Martin Brundle and DC doing the commentary the race should have plenty of helpful insight from two of Britain's best servants to the sport. I just hope that DC will be able to keep his very obvious support for Red Bull in check to provide unbiased commentary. Mind you why am I getting my hopes up cause everyone knows both Eddie Jordan and Brundle (as much as he the best sports journalist in the country) are quite anti-Mclaren and anti-Schumacher for their own reasons but they have to put it aside as it gets in the way of the usually sensible (more Brundle in terms of sensible-ness) analysis that they have been giving for the last two years.
Last year's race will probably go down as one of the best Australian Grand Prix that there has ever been if not the very best. Vettel lead from pole until his break failure on lap 26 but via an accident between Alonso, Button and Schumacher at turn one, Hamilton beginning to bring his massively brave and exciting overtaking abilities on the likes of Massa and especially Nico Rosberg, to Button's brilliant tire call which won him the race it was drama all the way through as a mixture of the weather and some amazing driving answered the critics who slammed the new regulations after Bahrain and kicked started what would turn into the greatest season in the history of the sport.
There are many things to talk about leading into the race. I mean even before we get into specific cars and drivers we have to look at the unpredictability of the tires and the track. With rain forecast throughout the weekend we could be seeing a lot of changing of tires and brave calls which leads to potential for great strategic calls in the same breath as unnecessary crashes from any driver on the grid.
Then there is the extra question of the degradation of the Pirelli tires even in dry conditions should the weather incline to stay that way. 3/4 stops could be the norm for the season in dry conditions, there is no telling what it could be in changeable conditions. Furthermore with Albert Park having one of the bumpier and more abrasive track surfaces on the calender the tires still relatively unknown we could see the race either won by the driver willing to make one more tire stop but be faster and potentially running the tires, like a Hamilton or a Webber or the driver willing to try and make one less stop but not going too slowly to lose ground, potentially like a Button or an Alonso.
We finally get to see the moveable rear wings in action along with KERS. We will find out whether it makes the race more open and competitive or falsify it to a degree. There has been no showing of it in hand to hand combat so all we can do is sit and wait to see what could potentially happens on the pit straight or on the run to turn 13 for most conclusive and definitive evidence.
But perhaps the most interesting element of the season at this point comes from Mclaren. They are making radical changes to a car that has had problems being fast and or reliable in testing. The car was probably one of the most radically different on the grid to begin with and if these changes come off we could be looking and a decently fast and extremely interestingly designed and engineered car being piloted by the two most differing drivers on the grid in terms of driving style.
Then there is what I imagine is going to be the fight at this first race. Both reigning champion Vettel and Ferrari No.1 Alonso are quite a way ahead of their respective team-mates in terms of (in my view) driver ability and overall pace in the pre-season testing that has taken place. They will probably be the two fastest overall drivers in race trim if the cars are set up properly.
However over a single lap it is impossible to ignore the massive elephant in the room which turned up at the last testing session in Barcelona: The Mercedes, in both Rosberg's and his Schumacher-ness's hands was mentally fast on it's qualifying style runs with Schumacher setting a time of 1.22.3, about 3 tenths of a second faster than Alonso with the same tires and same fuel and Rosberg was right on Alonso's tail in terms of pace only having one qualifying simulations. And on top of that apparently the Merc is kind to its tires, has good reliability and is not that much slower in terms of race pace than either the Red Bull or the Ferrari and possibly very important this weekend, has so far had the most and fastest wet weather running. I can see Mercedes gaining pole and keeping Alonso and Vettel honest in the race and, reliability pending, a potential victory for either Schumi or Rosberg.
There are only two other cars that will be worth a particular look in detial in this race even more than all the others:
The Renault was fastest in the first pre-season test and showed consistent race pace throughout. They claim that the car is fast enough to challenge right up at the front on a more consistent basis than last year's miracle worker, the R30, could do in the hands of Kubica. That may well be the case but there is the doubt of the raw pace of stand in Nick Heidfeld and the still inexperienced Vitaly Petrov in comparison to the man who I keep saying is the best driver currently in the sport in Kubica. They have to step up to the mark in Kubica's place and it will be very interesting to see if they are up for the fight.
The HRT as it has had no testing of any kind and with the re-introduction of the dreaded 107% qualifying rule there could be cause for concern for the car which is easily going to be the slowest car in the field (for those that don't know all qualifying laps in the first session have to be within 107% of the fastest lap in the first session otherwise (unless special circumstances apply) they will be seen as too slow in a race situation and not allowed to take the start).
Now last year what I did was do a prediction for every driver for qualifying and the race and even though I never got it quite right I will attempt to do a similar type of thing again this year but only for the top ten in the race as it was previously very long winded. I will also mention important retirements that I think could happen.
1) Vettel
2) Alonso
3) Schumacher
4) Rosberg (I think he could get his first pole this weekend.
5) Heidfeld
6) Hamilton
7) Button
8) Sutil
9) Petrov
10) Algersuari
Retirements: Maldonado, Perez, Di Resta, Massa and Trulli.
Now as we know the midfield is going to be chaotic and there should be at least a couple of accidents I should know by know I’ll more than likely be wrong but all I can do know is wait and see. I do predict that this race is going to be fantastic and I’ll make sure I’ll be back on Sunday evening after probably watching the race twice with my verdict.
See you all later on in the weekend.
Signing off, Nick.
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