Round 12 - Spa - F1 is back.

Yes Ladies and Gentlemen I am back with a blog that will end up being only one day behind schedule but will still be posted before the practice sessions which is when I promised this to be. Coming up this weekend is undoubtedly one of the jewels in the F1 crown: The 2011 Belgian Prix at the legendarily fast and demanding Circuit de Spa Francorchamps for round 12 of the 2011 Formula One World Championship

Before I continue I am making a point not to discuss the television rights of the sport in this country. This is because many points and been hammered and counter hammered home by the actual people who about the sport from the inside the sport and my opinion would be perhaps useless as well as quite frankly not relevant as someone who has a Sky Box and will be able to watch every race from 2012 onwards.

Back to the racing the championship, as you probably well know, is well in Sebastian Vettel's court seeing as he has an 85 point lead over his win-less teammate Webber who is being closely courted by Hamilton, Alonso and Button.

The previous race was a race which on raw pace was quite frankly dominated by the dry weather pace of Hamilton and the mixed weather confidence of race winner Button who was followed home by Vettel, Alonso (despite at least 3 off track moments), Hamilton (after a spin, wrong tire choice, drive through and an epic pass on Webber) and Webber to round the top 5 off.

The first major point of interest which I shall talk about is something i mentioned in my previous blog involving the championship leading Red Bull team:

The Renault powed RB7 has cured it's reliability problems so it will most definitely finish the races but as the last two races have proved in particular it appears to not have the same utterly dominant pace that it had at the start of the season. It was a brilliant piece of Adrian Newey design which started the season crushing all before it and is now a car that has recently struggled to get onto the podium thanks to the awesome form of both Mclaren drivers and Alonso in the Ferrari.

I have been thinking, looking at the car and the thought that has sprung to my mind on multiple occasions is that it has perhaps reached a technological peak that any developments that can go on the car will be fewer and further between. That is not the fault of Adrian Newey, if anything it shows how he is able to design a fast car without any on track testing. The problem is at this point in season it seems that there is not much done that can make it faster than it is and it gives Mclaren and Ferrari some hope of catching and properly overhauling Red Bull before the end of the season.

There is an equal but opposite problem going on a Ferrari. They are going to stop develop their F150 Italia this coming months. It was car that flattered to deceive in the first few races and then went on to battle right at the head of field, taking it's first win of the season at Silverstone. It has come on leaps and bounds and has given Alonso a shot at the third championship which would put him automatically into the list of all time greats which includes names like Fangio, Piquet and Senna so why they are looking at starting work on the 2012 car is beyond me.

This has happened more than once, most recently in 2008 when Robert Kubica was right in the championship hunt with BMW Sauber and he went down from a potential champion to 4th place behind a mostly lackluster Kimi Raikonnen in that years standings because BMW put their efforts into designing the 2009 challenger which turned out to be a pig of a car for the most part. For competition sake I can only hope the last update they put on that Ferrari is a damn good one.

In other news:

There has been a ban on the Drag Reduction System being used through the famously flat out and daunting Eau Rouge and Radillon corners. (or turns 2 and 3 if this track was in Asia). While it would have been absolutely awesome to see the Red Bull's/Ferrari's/Mclaren's taking it flat out in qualifying with the wing open, sliding up the steep slope at 190+ mph I can see why it has been done. There are not only the issues of some of the cars not having enough mechanical grip to pull it off but some of the drivers not being physically able to do it. I mentioned in my last blog about D'Ambrosio being a driver I worry is going to have a huge accident. This is just the sort of measure that save us the fans from seeing the scary sight of a car barrel rolling on the tarmac run off areas.

HRT have amazingly confirmed a semblance of financial security! They have not come out and said they are as rich as Ferrari or the old Toyota or BMW teams but they have said fairly categorically said that they are solvent enough for the grid to be worried about their future participation. While this is often seen as good news because of the car's improved performance and my personal want of seeing as many cars on the grid as possible I would be inclined to take this with a pinch of salt especially considering some of the things that team owner Colin Kolles has said, which have included threatening to protest the results of the Monaco Grand Prix due to not having an exhaust blown diffuser, off throttle or otherwise.

Michael Schumacher officially celebrates 20 years since his Formula One Debut at this very track. In 1991 he shocked the world but putting the pretty and pretty awful 1991 Jordan 7th on the grid in a field of top experienced drivers that included Senna, Prost and driver steward for this weekend Nigel Mansell. He would win the race the following year defeating a dominant Nigel Mansell in the all conquering Adrian Newey designed Williams FW14B. He has the longest gap between his debut and his currently last race in F1 of any driver. Not even Ricardo Patrese or Rubens Barrichello (who has completed more races) have had such long spanning careers and this fact alone, like Barrichello's 300th Grand Prix at this track last year is a fact that is worthy of congratulations as is a mark of the fitness of the man.

There another driver change this year: Bruno Senna, previous HRT driver and nephew of the great man Aryton is replacing Nick 'MY CAR IS ON FIRE!' Heidfeld in the Renault team for the rest of the season (even though they apparently can only say for the next two races for legal reasons) making him the 28th driver that has competed in a race this season.

Senna could well have already been a world champion for all we know: He was snubbed from the 2009 Brawn in favor of the experience that Rubens Barrichello brought to the table. For all we know he could have been even faster in the Brawn than eventual Champion Button was and potentially beaten even Jenson to be champion. The HRT told us nothing about how good or otherwise this Senna could be. I for one am just glad that we get to see the Senna name in what has blatantly been designed to look a John Player Special liveried Lotus (depending on how you name the cars). That will be such an evocative sight if we ever get to witness him through the lens of an onboard camera.

Now onto the features of this race:

Spa is well known for having both high speed and high downforce elements so it is going to be practically impossible for any one car to be fastest on any one sector of the track in qualifying or the race.

Mclaren will probably be mighty in the first and third sectors thanks to the Mercedes engine, a good DRS system and the best/most reliable KERS system in the field whilst Red Bull will most likely be brilliant in the middle sector thanks to downforce needed in the great section involving Pouhon and the following Campus chicaine. Ferrari will fill their seemingly usual position of being second best everywhere and possibly being able to produce the all round best lap time. However what can not be ruled is the fast starting Mercedes Benz cars of Schumacher and Rosberg getting a good result down purely to the outrageous grunt of that engine and the ability of their DRS system.

The softs and mediums are the two dry weather tire compounds being brought to this race and the following race in Monza. The tire degredation of the Pirelli's is going to be down to something as simple but important as how each of the teams set up their suspensions and brake pressures to handle the fast bends of Eau Rouge, Pouhon and the mighty Stavelot and Blanchimont corners at the end of the lap.

The weather will almost certainly play a part. With the track being a spaced as it is with it's huge straights and long shallow angle corners through the Ardennes Forest it is almost expected that at some point one part of the circuit will be soaking wet and the other half would be bone dry. Last year it caught out the entire field into the Bus Stop chicane and the end of the lap and particularly race winner Hamilton and championship protagonist Alonso after the Les Combes chicane.

Now after many words which most of you may or may not have read here comes yet another probably incorrect top ten prediction for the Belgian Grand Prix:

1. Hamilton
2. Alonso
3. Button
4. Vettel
5. Rosberg
6. Sutil
7. Kobayashi
8. Schuamcher
9. Di Resta
10. Senna

Retirements: Webber, D'Ambrosio, Trulli, Liuzzi

Thanks if you made it this far. See you on the Monday after the race.

Nick.

And onto the mid-season break

The Mid-season Break 2011: Where do we stand?

Sorry I have not blogged for ages. I have been a mixture of busy, having a minor emotional breakdown (which has been solved, no need to worry) and unable to accurately describe what I have wanted to say since Monaco-ish. But now we are at the mid-season break what I can do now is look at how the season is progressing and the undeniable and quite awesome way the championship challenge has truly come to life.

Briefly what has happened for those who are not paying true attention is that Sebastian Vettel has only managed to win 1 of the last 5 races, coming 2nd in 3 of them and 4th at his home race as I am about to summarise you lucky, lucky people:

• Jenson Button pulled off one of the greatest victories in F1 history in Montreal coming from last to first in less than 20 laps in a race which included collisions with both Lewis Hamilton on lap 6 and Fernando Alonso on lap 36, a puncture and a drive through as a result of the coming together with Alonso but was certified when he proved to be the first man able to overtake Mark Webber cleanly and an inspired Michael Schumacher to pressure the championship leader Vettel into a mistake on the final lap to take the win to become the third race winner of year after Vettel and Hamilton.

• Valencia was an unfortunately dull affair apart from a tense race long scrap between Fernando Alonso and Mark Webber for 2nd whilst the Mclaren's struggled to match that pace and Jaime Algersuari used a Sauber-esque 2-stopper to challenge the Mercedes of Nico Rosberg for large parts of the race on his way to 8th. Vettel took perhaps his most dominant win of the year extending has championship lead to 77 points. Or to put it another, more insightful way: BOOOOOOOOOOOOORINNGGGGGGGGG

• The British Grand Prix was also a race held in mixed conditions and was characterized by a relentlessly supreme drive by Alonso, a rare Red Bull pit error, a last lap war between Hamilton and Filliepe Massa and Red Bull ordering Webber not pass Vettel in the final laps but him ignoring it until the very final lap. Button retired after a wheel did not go on properly in his last pit stop. Vettel's championship lead would increase further thanks to this team order up to 80 points.

• The surprisingly cold and perhaps even more surprisingly dry race in the Efiel Mountains of the German Grand Prix saw a classic race-long three car scrap between Webber, Alonso and eventual victor Hamilton in a battle which saw see-sawing lap times, overtaking and Hamilton and Alonso using the weather to make a mockery of the undercut strategy. However this race will be most remembered for Vettel having a rather torrid time making mistakes including a spin at the Schumacher S and only getting ahead of Massa on a bodged last lap pit stop for prime tires. The championship lead went down to 77 points and questions were starting to be asked about the pace of the Red Bull in general.

• These questions were further asked on Sunday in the Hungarian Grand Prix. After a race that was uncharacteristically exciting which featured mixed conditions, differing strategies, plenty of overtaking, both Mclaren's running side by side at the front of the pack multiple times and a harsh yet just about understandable drive through penalty for Hamilton saw Button win again in mixed conditions ahead of Vettel, Alonso, Hamilton, Webber and Massa taking Vettel's championship lead up to 85, the biggest it has been all season.

Now with the three week break where the front three teams are on the grid is not easy to determine but here is how I see it:

• Red Bull still have inherent pace but are perhaps coming to the end of what they can do to develop the car to be within the regulations. That was proved by the fact for this race Vettel went back to a previous specification rear end which brought him closer to the Mclaren's and I think that is what gave him the confidence to earn pole position in Hungary. And with Spa, Monza and the new track in India looking like power circuits the end of the season could potentially be quite tense for the team that looked like it could not be beaten just 8 weeks ago.

• Mclaren have really turned that pig of a car around to be the fastest in wet/generally cooler conditions as well as the colossal straight-line speed thanks to the Mercedes engine with both Button and Hamilton driving probably better than they ever have and proving why they are both worthy former World Champions. With the two major power circuits coming up I expect them to be competitive again especially if the conditions are anything like they have been over the last 3 Grand Prix.

• Ferrari has a rather difficult problem. Fernando Alonso has been nothing short of awesome since his retirement in Canada keeping it with the Mclaren's and the Bull's being on the podium 5 out of the last 6 races stretching back to Monaco. I have no doubt that he can help to make the closing stages of the championship exciting alongside his *wink-wink* allies at Mclaren. The problem is Massa. He is struggling to stay on pace with the front five and is having many adventures. He often has his races ruined by getting jumped by the fast starting Mercedes-Benz's of Schumacher and Rosberg. While he has proved he is a good attacking driver he needs to get his starts right to get involved in the main scrap so he can help Alonso and Mclaren hold those charging Bull's back.

Now without wishing to leave out the rest of the field here is a run-down of where everyone else lies:

• The Mercedes-Benz cars are electric off the starting line and have tremendous straight-line speed and the best DRS in the field. Unfortunately the car is fundamentally flawed in its design. It is harsh on its tires and has poor rear fundamental down-force compared to where they wanted/expected to be, which I believe to be exacerbated by the DRS system. With Schumacher pushing and getting into scrapes and Rosberg seemingly going through the motions this season is coming quite close to a write-off for them. That said they are comfortably a second or two ahead of the cars behind them in terms of race pace so they are in a battle all their own to see which one of them finishes just behind Massa in WDC.

• Renault have dropped off the boil. After looking like genuine challengers at the start of the year they have dropped right into the midfield instead of near the front where they were earlier in the year. Petrov has done rather well and certainly earned his 2012 seat in my book. But Heidfeld (a driver I make no bones about being a fan of) has had a torrid time since his podium in Malaysia especially after his car lit up the track in a bad way this past race. With Bruno Senna, a man who has not had a fair crack in F1 yet as far I am concerned, looking over his shoulder, and with former Renault failure Roman Grosjean looking better and better every time he continues to dominate in GP2, he needs to up his game or start looking for another place to drive, which could well be outside of F1. One can speculate what a fit and fired up Robert Kubica might have been able to achieve but i'm not sure he could do much more than get closer to Mercedes.

• Williams have been extremely poor. Oh how the mighty have fallen. Barrichello has gone from being a bit of a battering ram to being largley non-existant whereas Maldonado has not had the chance to show what he is capable of the way he did at Monaco (drivers circuit as we all know) on a consistent basis. This season I think they are already looking at as a write off and the switch to Renault Engines and the personnel shuffle for 2012 cannot come soon enough for the former Constructors champions.

• Force India are improving by leaps and bounds at this point in the season. Di Resta bounced back from a difficult period to get his best finish in F1 in Hungary and Sutil has had a succession of good drives which have given a potential chance to challenge Sauber and Renault in the Constructors this year. With Nico Hulkenberg as the reserve driver they have a very good problem in terms of drivers for next year. I can potentially see either one of them in a Mercedes-Benz or a Mclaren before too much longer.

• Sauber are in a strange situation. Perez and Kobayashi are driving well on the whole but what is stopping them being potentially up with Mercedes is this persistence of doing less tire stops than anyone else. The Ferrari engine is serving them well and neither and backwards in coming forwards should the mood take them so they should be doing better than they are. They are locked in a battle with Force India and should be 6th or possibly even 5th in the constructors championship purely on the strength of the already re-signed driver line-up provided they become a bit more ambitious with their tires and unlock more of the natural performance of the car which they have shown in Monaco, Australia and Malaysia.

• Toro Rosso are officially in a bit of a pickle. Both Algersuari and Buemi have picked their game up immensely. Another Ferrari powered car that is kind on its tires gives them a race strategy and occasionally the raw pace to finish in the points. With Ricciardo proving himself in the HRT it is difficult to work out who is going to be driving for them next year and also it begs the question what would happen if Webber were to go against the speculation and leave Red Bull at the end of the year. Personally I’d put Algersuari into the Red Bull as he has shown more raw ability than Buemi since he has been in the team but I do not think Buemi has lost his place in Toro Rosso so like Force India they have a good but perhaps unwanted problem with drivers.

• Team Lotus have officially arrived in the midfield. With Trulli and his new power-steering system and Kovalinen continuing to impress with his driving I would put the car at a maximum of half a second off the back of the scrap for effectively 9th/10th places. They may have over promised what the car could do at the start of the year but they are starting to claw their way towards the pack and despite having a team full of people that annoy you (according to my good friend Edward Price) they are a team I hope go on to do great things.

• HRT are perhaps the shock of the year for a number of reasons. They are quite close to Virgin, beating D'Ambrosio at a number of races, staying vaguely reliable and getting within the 107% at almost every track. Ricciardo is proving more and more he deserves a much faster car whilst Liuzzi is proving why I think he should not have been in F1 this year. He is already losing to a man who has competed in only 3 Grand Prix and a few Toro Rosso practice sessions compared to his relatively veteran 73 Grand Prix starts. If they can get a car designed in time and test it we hopefully stop making jokes about HRT being no faster than GP2 cars at the start of a season.

• Virgin need to use a wind tunnel and that is a fact. Timo Glock is a much better driver than the car he has and should have be in the Mercedes instead of Rosberg or even Schumacher (as much as it pains me to admit it). All he has to do is beat the HRT and it is a successful weekend for him seeing as the Virgin is now about 3/4 of a second slower than the Lotus and there is no way of him catching them since they appear to have given up on this car. Hopefully this technical relationship with Mclaren will see a marked improvement next year from the first new team to get a place on the 2010 grid. And I am worried about D'Ambrosio. Anyone who saw his pitlane spin in Hungary will know why I say this: I am scared he is going to try going through Eau Rouge flat-out and it will probably result in a horrible accident. He should never have been in the car in the first place and he is showing it more and more by losing to at least one HRT on a regular basis. It is a shame that Adam Carroll didn't get the chance or Lucas Di Grassi getting his chance several years sooner because they are more deserving of an F1 chance than he was.

So with the summer break in progress there are still questions which need answering in the world of F1:

• Can Vettel keep his championship lead AND not hit anyone whilst he is trying to pass them as he done fairly well recently?

• Can the old rivals continue to work sort of together to catch the Bull's like they have been doing?
• Can Force India catch and overhaul Sauber and have a stab at Renault in the Constructors Championship?
• Will Liuzzi ever go away?
• Will Martin Brundle betray the BBC and move to SKY as their lead commentator?
• Will Mark Webber stay with Red Bull for 2012 or leave in a team-order based huff?
• Will Sauber go for a conventional race strategy to show how much raw pace that a lot of people think the car has?
• With it being another Tilke-drome will the Indian Grand Prix produce a good race or be a massive let-down?
• Will David Coulthard ever pronounce Vettel's name correctly?
• Will we see Karun Chandok and Karthikien at the Indian Grand Prix for purely sponsorship reasons?

All that and more in my next blog, which should hopefully be written on the Thursday before the Belgian Grand Prix.

So for now I say adios and leave you with the top ten in the championship and an early prediction for the top ten in the next race:

Drivers Championship standings (Top 10)

1. Vettel: 234
2. Webber: 149
3. Hamilton: 146
4. Alonso: 145
5. Button: 134
6. Massa: 70
7. Rosberg: 48
8. Heidfeld: 34
9. Petrov: 32
10. Schumacher: 32

Belgian Grand Prix Prediction (Top 10)

1. Hamilton
2. Alonso
3. Button
4. Vettel
5. Massa
6. Webber
7. Schumacher
8. Kobayashi
9. Rosberg
10. Algersuari